Thursday, September 11, 2025

Is Bitcoin Reaching a Post-Halving Peak? Analyst Predicts BTC Demand Will Surpass Supply by Over 6x in 2025

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Bitcoin’s Current Status

Bitcoin is currently holding steady around $108,716, as per CoinDesk Data. Despite this apparent stability in its price, underlying factors are suggesting that a significant breakout could be on the horizon. Both retail investors and institutional players are ramping up their accumulation efforts, indicating a strong demand for the cryptocurrency.

Institutional Demand Rising

On August 29, André Dragosch, the European head of research at Bitwise, noted a historic acceleration in corporate adoption of bitcoin. He reported that July and August alone saw the creation of 28 new bitcoin treasury companies, along with an aggregate increase of over 140,000 BTC in corporate holdings. To put this into context, that figure is nearly equivalent to the total amount of new bitcoin mined in a year, which is around 164,000 BTC. This underscores the significant demand from corporate treasuries, absorbing supply faster than it can be produced.

The accompanying Bitwise chart prominently displays a steep upward curve, signifying that more companies are beginning to view bitcoin as a reserve asset, echoing Michael Saylor’s strategy with MicroStrategy.

Corporate treasuries added 140,600 BTC in July–August, per Bitwise (Bitwise/X)

Challenging Historical Patterns

Dragosch further addressed a recurring narrative among analysts suggesting that bitcoin might “top out” in 2025, particularly due to post-halving cycle patterns observed in earlier years. He argued that such predictions do not take into account the scale of current institutional demand. As of August 29, 2025, demand has outstripped supply by more than six times. His chart illustrates a staggering 690,000 BTC absorbed by institutional demand, compared to just over 109,000 BTC in new supply.

This exceptional imbalance poses challenges to historical cycle comparisons and suggests that traditional supply dynamics influenced by halving events may lose relevance in an era dominated by institutional adoption.

Chart showing BTC one-year demand versus new supply from 2020 to 2025

Institutional demand outpacing supply more than 6x in 2025, Bitwise data shows (Bitwise/X)

Retail Accumulation on the Rise

Retail investors are also contributing to the growing demand. On August 27, Dragosch pointed out that accumulation across all bitcoin wallet cohorts—from small holders to whales—has reached its highest level since April. This indicates that investors are, in his words, “stacking relentlessly.” The accompanying chart reveals sharp upward trends across various wallet groups, suggesting a confluence of retail and institutional buying activity.

Historically, synchronized accumulation has frequently preceded significant price increases, making the current market environment particularly enticing for bullish investors.

Chart showing rising bitcoin accumulation across wallet cohorts

Bitcoin wallet cohorts show strongest accumulation since April 2025 (Bitwise/X)

Current Price Dynamics

Despite these accumulating signals, bitcoin remains relatively unchanged at $108,716 over the last 24 hours, as reported by CoinDesk Data. The market seems to be in a state of anticipation, waiting for clearer catalysts to spark significant price movements.

Price Analysis Highlights

  • Between August 30, 15:00 UTC, and August 31, 14:00 UTC, bitcoin traded in a narrow range of $1,285, peaking at $109,518.96 before retreating.
  • Resistance was established around $109,500, coinciding with a volume spike of 6,077 BTC. Meanwhile, support levels formed around $108,350–$108,400, where buyers stepped in.
  • A notable volume increase to 8,272 BTC at 13:00 UTC suggested institutional participation at these price levels.
  • In the final hour of the analysis period, BTC broke higher from $108,340.08 to $108,398.41, with a two-phase move: consolidation around $108,260–$108,350, followed by a breakout above the $108,470 resistance at 13:46 UTC.
  • However, profit-taking led to pullbacks to the $108,320–$108,360 range, although sustained buying kept prices above $108,380 until the close.
  • Market volatility remains elevated following a sharp decline from $124,500 earlier in August.
  • Currently, BTC is still trading below the vital $110,500 resistance, and analysts caution against ruling out a potential test of the $100,000 psychological level.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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