Bitcoin (BTC) has recently reached a remarkable new weekly high, surpassing $112,000. This impressive surge signals a potentially significant uptrend for the leading cryptocurrency, which may represent the climax of the current cycle for both Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
Market analyst CryptoBirb has highlighted that this upward movement could persist for around 50 more days. With Bitcoin now 95% through its cycle, which has lasted 1,017 days since the lows of November 2022, many eyes are on how high Bitcoin can climb before the next correction.
50 Days Until Possible Bitcoin Peak
Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets have peaked between 1,060 and 1,100 days after significant lows, suggesting a target timeframe for this particular cycle’s peak could fall between late October and mid-November 2025. This insight provides a critical lens for traders and investors looking to position themselves strategically.
It’s essential to recognize the relationship between Bitcoin’s Halving events and subsequent price peaks. Since the last Halving in April 2024, 503 days have already passed. Data indicates that price peaks typically occur between 518 to 580 days following such events, putting current movements strongly within the timeline of potential volatility.
Currently, Bitcoin is positioned between 77% to 86% through this timeline, as described by CryptoBirb. This phase, dubbed the “hot zone,” is characterized by increased volatility and significant price movements, making it crucial for traders to remain vigilant.
However, while excitement builds, it’s crucial to approach with caution. Historical trends suggest that following peaks, Bitcoin usually undergoes a substantial decline, often falling by 70% to 80% over a period of 370 to 410 days. Analysts anticipate that this bearish phase may manifest in the first and second quarters of 2026, and historically, there’s a notable correlation of a bear market occurring in that year.
This upcoming downturn is expected after a final thrust of gains, with only 50 days remaining until the anticipated market peak. September is notably a challenging month for Bitcoin, exhibiting an average decline of around 6.17%. Although third quarter metrics can be mixed—with a median increase of about 0.80%—the overall trend tends to show losses due to significant drops during earlier months.
Common seasonal patterns suggest that a weak September may precede more robust performance in October and November, with the date of September 17 marked as particularly critical by the analyst.
Critical Support and Resistance Levels
From a technical standpoint, essential support levels have been identified at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) of $95,900 and the 200-week SMA at $52,300. On the daily chart, significant insights emerge, showcasing a 200-day breakout point at approximately $111,000 and a 200-day SMA around $101,000.
CryptoBirb has also pinpointed local support in the region of $107,700 to $108,700, with resistance levels standing between $113,000 to $114,100. As traders look for signs of directional movement, understanding these levels is paramount.
Short-term and long-term trading trailers currently hint at a bearish mood. If Bitcoin dips below the critical thresholds of $107,000 to $108,000, there is a potential for heightened bearish sentiment to take hold, leading to secondary corrections in the range of 20% to 30%.
Despite this, cryptocurrency miners are currently in a favorable position. The mining cost has been established at $95,400, reflecting a generally healthy market environment with less risk of capitulation.
Moreover, there’s a cautionary note regarding the possibility of a market peak leading into the altcoin season in October and November. CryptoBirb suggests it’s wise to mark October 22 on the calendar, indicating it could be a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s cycle.
As of this writing, Bitcoin trades just under $112,886—down nearly 11% from its all-time high levels, leaving many curious about what lies ahead in this turbulent market.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com.
