Bitcoin Could Soar: Insights from VanEck’s Mid-October 2025 ChainCheck

In its recent report, VanEck’s Mid-October 2025 ChainCheck presents a compelling argument for Bitcoin’s potential growth, suggesting it could reach as high as $180,000 before the current bull market ends. The firm underlines critical factors such as broad money growth and the dynamics of the futures market that could pave the way for such significant gains.

VanEck Links Bitcoin to Global Money Supply

An intriguing aspect of VanEck’s analysis is the correlation between Bitcoin and the global monetary landscape. Reports indicate a robust correlation of approximately 0.5 between Bitcoin’s price and the total global M2 money supply since 2014. Over this period, the liquidity across the world’s top five currencies has dramatically surged from about $50 trillion to nearly $100 trillion.

What’s particularly enlightening is how Bitcoin’s performance aligns with this monetary expansion—its price increased roughly 700 times during the same timeframe. Current estimates reveal Bitcoin occupies about 2% of the global money supply. VanEck argues that holding less than that percentage in Bitcoin is, in essence, a bet against this cryptocurrency’s future potential, reinforcing the idea that money printing can drive significant asset demand.

This numerical framework provides a clear link between monetary policy and asset values, although it stops short of claiming a perfect prediction model. The connection, nevertheless, is presented as undeniably meaningful.

Futures Flows and Market Fragility

Another crucial element in understanding Bitcoin’s price movements is the impact of futures markets. VanEck notes that approximately 73% of Bitcoin’s price variability since October 2020 can be attributed to shifts in futures open interest, supported by a strong t-statistic of 71.

Currently, cash collateral backing these contracts hovers around $145 billion. This is noteworthy as open interest in futures had peaked at $52 billion on October 6, only to drop to $39 billion by October 10, prompted by a sharp 20% drop in Bitcoin’s price within an eight-hour period.

The data reveals that borrowed positions have occasionally climbed to the 95th percentile, yet past trends show that positions exceeding 30% rarely hold for more than 75 days. Such statistics illuminate how crowded trades can unravel quickly and help explain sudden price swings in the market.

Rotation Between Safe Havens and Risk Assets

Analysts are also paying close attention to the recent correction in gold’s market capitalization, which has fallen by $2.5 trillion. This movement, rather than hinting at a loss of faith, suggests a cooling-off period. As macroeconomic conditions fluctuate, investors may shift between safe havens like gold and risk assets such as Bitcoin, depending on what the economic indicators reveal.

For example, a softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading or easing trade tensions could redirect capital flows into Bitcoin. Such scenarios raise the specter of Bitcoin reaching between $130,000 and $132,000 in the first quarter of 2026. VanEck’s shorter-term targets are set even higher, predicting potential targets of $129,200 and $141,000, with a significant upward price movement past $125,000 indicating renewed buying strength.

Key Price Levels and Risks

As Bitcoin prices trade within the range of $108,000 to $125,000, VanEck identifies a critical “Whale Buy Zone” just above the $108,600 mark. Maintaining a price above $108,000 is seen as crucial for tilting the odds toward future price increases.

Understanding these price levels is essential for investors looking to navigate the complexities of Bitcoin’s market landscape. High-stakes trading and fluctuating demand highlight the need for those involved to be particularly vigilant of the underlying economic dynamics and market sentiment.

Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView.