Bitcoin Poised for Major Boxing Day Volatility with Upcoming Options Expiration

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee and watch closely: while gold surges to new highs, signaling capital rotation toward safety, Bitcoin remains trapped below $90,000. A $300 million options structure suppressed volatility, but after the major expiry, this calm could quickly give way to dramatic price action.

Crypto News of the Day: Bitcoin’s Gamma Cage In Focus After Today’s Options Expiry

Gold has surged to fresh highs, breaking above a multi-year ceiling and reinforcing its reputation as the market’s early warning signal when capital rotates toward safety. Bitcoin, however, has failed to respond in kind. Instead, the world’s largest cryptocurrency remains pinned below $90,000.

New insights suggest this stagnation may not stem from fading demand, but rather from a massive derivatives structure that mechanically suppresses price movement. Analyst Crypto Tice commented, “Gold made the first move. Bitcoin is still loading.” He elaborated that gold’s breakout typically marks the moment when liquidity begins to shift, while Bitcoin tends to react later when risk appetite is reinstated.

“Gold tends to move first when liquidity seeks safety. Bitcoin follows when risk appetite turns back on,” Crypto Tice said, noting that these compressed phases “don’t fade out slowly,” but resolve dramatically, potentially resetting an entire market cycle.

This aligns with a recent analysis from BeInCrypto, which pointed out that gold’s rally often catalyzes upward movement in Bitcoin.

For Bitcoin, the compression is largely due to a $300 million “gamma trap.” David, a market structure analyst, described Bitcoin as “mechanically trapped in a tight range” because of heavy options positioning. The downside is anchored by an $85,000 put wall with nearly $98.8 million in put gamma, while an upside cap exists at a $90,000 call wall housing about $36.2 million in call gamma. This setup has led to a negative gamma feedback loop.

“The result: Price is effectively locked in a cage,” he said, emphasizing that market movement isn’t being driven by sentiment or headlines, but rather by “the mathematical necessity of dealer hedging.”

Could Today’s Gamma Expiry Trigger Bitcoin’s Next Big Move?

This stability is likely temporary. About $300 million worth of gamma, amounting to 58% of the total gamma complex, expired during a significant options event today. David characterized this as a “pin release,” warning that once the expiry takes effect, the incentives keeping Bitcoin tethered between $85,000 and $90,000 may vanish almost instantaneously.

Historically, such releases have spurred sharp and sudden volatility as the market strives to find a new equilibrium. An especially critical level to monitor is the gamma flip at $88,925, slightly above the current Bitcoin price of $88,724.

A sustained move past this threshold may trigger a shift in dealer dynamics from suppressing price action to enhancing it. This shift could necessitate dealers to buy into strength, altering the current market constraints significantly.

Additionally, the divergence between gold and Bitcoin is notable within a tense macroeconomic context. Economist Mohamed El-Erian noted that gold has surged over 40% this year, marking its most robust performance since 1979, while Bitcoin has seen a decline of approximately 20% year-to-date since its cycle peak. Analysts have cautioned that a concurrent rally across multiple asset classes could signal rising systemic stress. This aligns with a report indicating the metals rally may be indicative of underlying market stress.

Despite this, many crypto observers remain optimistic, interpreting Bitcoin’s stagnation as structural rather than outright bearish. Ran Neuner stated, “I don’t see a world where Bitcoin doesn’t catch up,” projecting confidence amidst ongoing pressures.

Chart of the Day

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of other US crypto news to follow today:

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview