Bitcoin continues to hold its ground above the $100,000 mark, recently trading around $101,500 after a week marked by significant volatility. Despite the tumult, this leading cryptocurrency appears to be finding its footing, largely fueled by renewed institutional interest and signs of accumulation from whale investors. Analysts suggest this could indicate a resurgence of confidence in Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has oscillated between $100,000 and $103,000, which marks a moment of stability following recent deleveraging events that saw BTC dip below the coveted six-figure threshold for the first time since May. This current tight trading range is a welcome sight for investors seeking some predictability in the market.
“The tone has shifted from panic to positioning,” explained Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN. “The leverage flush has left derivatives markets clean and spot markets primed for accumulation. With ETF inflows resuming and whales adding aggressively, the stage may be set for recalibration rather than continuation of the drawdown.”
ETF Inflows Return After Six Days of Outflows
After almost a week of redemptions, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a significant turnaround with net inflows of $240 million on Thursday. This marks an important shift following a six-day streak of outflows. Ethereum ETFs also saw a positive movement, adding $12.5 million, while Solana ETFs continued their strong performance with $29 million in inflows, marking eight consecutive days of growth.
Analysts perceive this reversal as a significant indicator. ETF flows have become a proxy for institutional sentiment; when redemptions cease, it frequently signals the end of short-term deleveraging phases. This renewed confidence might be pivotal in stabilizing the market.
Adding to the wave of bullish signals, Misir noted that large holders of Bitcoin are actively accumulating as prices dipped to a five-month low. “Whales and institutions have added nearly 30,000 BTC this week, worth almost $3 billion,” he remarked. “Long-term holders remain in control, which supports the market’s underlying stability.”
Macro Lens: Mixed Signals but Easing Tension
From a macroeconomic perspective, recent data has contributed to a cautiously optimistic atmosphere. U.S. companies announced 153,074 job cuts in October, reflecting a 175% year-over-year increase — the highest October figure since 2003. This trend showcases a degree of corporate caution amid a slowing economy.
However, QCP Capital indicated in a Wednesday note that “the macro backdrop remains constructive, albeit obscured by Washington’s ongoing government shutdown.” They pointed to a blend of strong GDP growth and softer payroll data, suggesting potential “robust productivity gains” and moderate momentum in economic growth.
Yet, there’s still a lack of clarity in policy direction. Following the Federal Reserve’s October rate cut, the probability of another rate adjustment in December stands at around 60%, as noted by QCP. The prolonged political impasse may also make policymakers more comfortable with a pause in future actions.
Markets have experienced modest relief due to improving relations between the U.S. and China, marked by the easing of trade tariffs earlier in the week, and the Fed’s resumption of repo operations that have alleviated dollar liquidity concerns. This environment has created a brief respite from the cross-asset deleveraging impacting equities, metals, and cryptocurrencies alike.
Rotation Over Retreat
Market structure metrics indicate a rotation of capital within the cryptocurrency space rather than an outright exit. Data from FalconX reveals that while traders remain cautious, they are still active in the market. “While there’s clearly some short-term bearishness, we’re not seeing people flee to cash,” noted Griffin Sears, head of derivatives at FalconX. “Funds are selling altcoins and transitioning into major currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This may further propel Bitcoin’s dominance, indicating ongoing institutional conviction.”
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $3,340, while BNB hovers near $955 and Solana maintains a price of $155, according to The Block’s price page.
Onchain data also fortifies the recovery narrative, showing that approximately 71% of the total Bitcoin supply is still in profit. At the same time, exchange balances continue to decline, highlighting a trend of long-term accumulation rather than capitulation.
Analyst Outlooks Shift, but Conviction Holds
In spite of the recent rebound, market outlooks have become more conservative. Galaxy Digital has revised its year-end Bitcoin target downward from $185,000 to $120,000, citing competition from AI and gold, along with profit-taking behaviors that could limit Bitcoin’s upside. Similarly, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has lowered its bullish projection by $300,000, asserting that stablecoins have absorbed some of Bitcoin’s traditional use cases.
In contrast, JPMorgan has reiterated a more optimistic stance, projecting that Bitcoin could reach $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months due to macroeconomic easing and the momentum surrounding ETFs.
Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet, providing news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures holds a majority stake in The Block, which invests in other companies in the crypto sector. The Block operates independently to deliver timely and impactful information about the crypto industry. Please refer to our current financial disclosures.
© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended for legal, tax, investment, or financial advice.
