Bitcoin’s sharp correction from $110,000 to around $80,000 is linked to heavy selling by early whales with cost bases near $16,000. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju notes that on-chain metrics indicate Bitcoin is now in the “shoulder” phase of its cycle, suggesting limited short-term upside potential.
This selling is overwhelming institutional demand from ETFs and MicroStrategy, shaping the cryptocurrency’s 2025 outlook. In an interview with Upbit’s Upbitcare, Ju provides a data-driven look at the shifting landscape for Bitcoin investors and the forces affecting its current market structure.
Early Bitcoin Whales Fuel Selling Pressure
Ki Young Ju explains that today’s market is shaped by a contest between two main whale groups: the legacy whales versus institutional buyers. The legacy whales, who hold Bitcoin with an average cost basis near $16,000, have been realizing significant profits, engaging in daily sell-offs exceeding hundreds of millions of dollars. This sustained pressure has led to a noticeable decline in Bitcoin’s price.
On the flip side, institutional interests, particularly through initiatives like spot Bitcoin ETFs and companies such as MicroStrategy, are accumulating substantial positions. However, their purchasing ability has not kept pace with the voracious selling from early whales. Ju points out that wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC for over 155 days typically show an average cost basis close to $38,000, while many Binance traders entered the market around $50,000. This discrepancy means that a significant portion of market participants are sitting on profits, which can incentivize further selling.
Ju notes that earlier in 2025, inflows from spot ETFs and MicroStrategy had a positive impact on the market. However, the tide has turned, and outflows now dominate. For instance, data from Farside Investors revealed that Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $42.8 million on November 26, 2025, contributing to total inflows of $62.68 billion. Despite these figures, the relentless selling pressure from early whales has outmatched the institutional buying momentum.
Market Cycle Analysis Signals Limited Upside
To understand the current landscape, on-chain profit-and-loss metrics provide valuable insights. Ju’s analysis utilizing the PnL index with a 365-day moving average indicates that Bitcoin is now in the “shoulder” phase of its market cycle. This phase signifies limited growth potential coupled with a heightened risk of correction.
The valuation multiplier, a crucial metric for understanding market dynamics, currently suggests a neutral-to-flat trajectory. Historically, each incremental dollar has contributed to outsized market-cap expansion. But that multiplier effect has largely diminished, signaling that market leverage may be operating at a less effective level and the current structure does not support significant upward movement.
While Ju does not anticipate a dramatic crash of 70-80%, he believes corrections of up to 30% are plausible. For example, should Bitcoin drop from $100,000, the price could potentially slide down to about $70,000. His views are bolstered by data from OKX futures long-short ratios, exchange leverage ratios, and current buy-sell flow patterns.
Ju emphasizes the significance of employing a data-driven approach in trading. In a recent social media post, he urged traders to rely on metrics for conviction, rather than speculation. His commitment lies in interpreting on-chain data, analyzing exchange activity, and understanding the broader market structure.
This comprehensive assessment highlights the current state of the Bitcoin market, framed by the activities of early whales and institutional investors. The combination of high leverage ratios, neutral valuation multipliers, and late-cycle status suggests that the potential for a major rally in the near future is severely limited.
