Ripple’s Billion XRP Release: What It Means for the Market
On November 1, Ripple is set to unlock 1 billion XRP, valued at approximately $2.5 billion at current market prices, as part of its regular monthly liquidity management scheme. This structured process has been in place since 2017 and aims to provide stability and predictability in token supply, avoiding sudden shocks in the market.
XRP Supply and Market Implications
Each month, Ripple unlocks 1 billion XRP and typically re-locks about 70-80% of it back into escrow. The remaining 200-300 million XRP is generally allocated to operational needs, institutional sales, or ecosystem support. This systematic approach is designed to mitigate the risk of sudden price movements caused by unexpected supply increases.
The upcoming release has garnered significant attention due to XRP’s recent price fluctuations. In October, the token was caught in a volatile trading range between $2.30 and $2.68, largely driven by optimism regarding Ripple’s institutional expansion and Evernorth’s forthcoming billion-dollar listed plans. While market players are keenly focused on this release, analysts generally expect limited direct price impact since the majority of tokens are likely to return to escrow shortly after the release.
Traders will closely monitor how much XRP Ripple decides to re-lock this month. A lower percentage re-locked could suggest a higher intention for distribution, which might indicate aggressive operational or funding activities as we approach 2026.
Community Debate: Market Cap and Escrowed Tokens
Discussions surrounding XRP’s market cap took a renewed breath as the community debated how to accurately account for XRP when calculating its market capitalization. Developer Vincent Van Code highlighted the fact that 35 billion XRP remain locked in escrow, arguing that this situation distorts the actual liquidity available to the market. He likened this scenario to Bitcoin, pointing out that lost or dormant coins affect market cap calculations as well.
Former Ripple CTO David Schwartz countered this viewpoint by clarifying that, although escrowed XRP cannot circulate until released, there exist secondary rights that can be traded—similar to financial forward contracts. Schwartz’s insights aimed to reinforce the notion that liquidity considerations should not overlook the structural mechanics of how escrow affects supply.
Ripple’s Broader Q4 Momentum
The timing of the escrow release is pivotal, occurring amidst critical developments for Ripple as a whole. The recent announcement by Evernorth, Ripple’s backed venture, unveils plans to go public and raise over $1 billion, promoting itself as the largest institutional XRP treasury company. Such moves position XRP for greater prominence in institutional finance, especially with additional backing from gumi Inc. in partnership with Ripple and SBI Group.
Amidst these significant institutional developments, the overall market dynamics have also impacted XRP’s valuation. The token recently broke resistance levels at $2.63 but experienced a correction due to broader crypto volatility triggered by updates from the Federal Reserve.
For XRP holders, the November 1 escrow unlock is less about panic and more about strategic foresight. If Ripple adheres to its typical re-lock pattern, we can anticipate minimal price pressure. However, market sentiment will likely hinge on Ripple’s management of liquidity post-unlock and how soon institutional inflows from the Evernorth initiative begin to manifest on-chain.
As Ripple navigates through these complexities, its approach to liquidity management remains crucial, not just for its own operations, but also for the broader dynamics of the cryptocurrency market.
