XRP-Spot ETF Approval Odds Hold Firm
In the ongoing saga of cryptocurrency regulation, the hopes for a US XRP spot ETF approval remain resilient. Despite the SEC’s continued silence concerning its potential withdrawal from an appeal, investors are leaning positively into the future. As of now, Polymarket reflects a significant shift in sentiment, showing a 79% probability for approval by December 2025, a jump from 68% reported on April 22.
However, the path to ETF approval is not without its legal hurdles. The SEC will need to withdraw its challenge against Judge Analisa Torres’ pivotal 2023 Summary Judgment, which ruled that programmatic sales of XRP do not meet the third prong of the Howey Test—a determination essential for moving forward with potential ETF approvals. This legal framework is crucial for establishing whether XRP can be classified as a security.
Interestingly, the SEC has recently extended its review period for Franklin Templeton’s XRP-spot ETF application by an additional 45 days. This new timeline is particularly noteworthy as it closely aligns with the deadline for the SEC to file a status report on the paused appeal, hinting at a potential intersection between the judicial and regulatory timelines that might influence XRP’s future.
This court deadline is tied to a jointly filed motion by the SEC and Ripple to pause the appeal, indicating a newfound interest in reaching a settlement. The convergence of these timelines could suggest that a resolution might be around the corner, setting the stage for significant market movements.
XRP Price Outlook: Legal Moves and ETF Progress in Focus
The near-term price trajectory of XRP heavily depends on several critical factors. Chief among them is whether the SEC formally withdraws its appeal, as well as the terms of any potential settlement. The market is keenly aware that favorable outcomes in these legal avenues could send XRP soaring.
Should the SEC abandon its appeal and a favorable settlement materialize, XRP investors might see the cryptocurrency retest its all-time high of $3.5505. In this optimistic scenario, ETF approval could even push prices closer to the $5 mark. Conversely, adverse rulings or unexpected delays could force XRP back to the $1.50 support level, a scenario many traders are keen to avoid.
XRP Price Action
Daily Chart
When examining XRP’s current position in the market, it trades below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a bearish trend in the near term. However, it maintains a position above the 200-day EMA, suggesting that longer-term support remains intact.
A breakout above the 50-day EMA could enable XPR bulls to target the April 28 high of $2.3621. Successfully surmounting this barrier may pave the way for the March 19 high of $2.5925 to come into play. Such moves above critical resistance levels could further energize bullish sentiments.
On the flip side, a drop below the $2.05 support level would raise alarms, exposing XRP to further declines and potentially testing the 200-day EMA and the $1.9299 support level. This would mark a significant bearish trend, prompting concerns among investors who might be caught off guard.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 51.82, a neutral signal indicating that XRP still has room for upward movement before entering overbought territory, which is typically seen when the RSI exceeds 70. This suggests that there may still be potential for XRP to rally toward $3 before hitting the upper limits of market enthusiasm.
