For a deeper dive, see our full XRP forecast here.
Bitcoin Hits 14-Day High Ahead of Big Beautiful Bill Vote
The cryptocurrency landscape has been buzzing, particularly with Bitcoin’s recent surge. As XRP made advancements in legal developments, Bitcoin (BTC) has extended its winning streak, notably driven by speculation surrounding the potential elimination of capital gains tax on BTC. This speculation arose from statements regarding a significant bill being debated in the Senate.
Crypto enthusiast the Bitcoin Historian captured this sentiment succinctly. They remarked:
“Trump Advisor Bailey confirms US will vote tonight on bill to remove Bitcoin capital gains. Law would be an amendment to Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, which passed the US House and is now being debated by the Senate.”
However, recent reports suggest that what David Bailey referred to might not be a direct vote on dropping capital gains tax but rather a broader crypto tax amendment. Despite this nuance, any favorable changes regarding tax could provide an impressive boost for BTC and the wider U.S. digital asset market.
US BTC-Spot ETF Market Eyes Fifteen-Day Inflow Streak
As of June 30, easing tensions in the Middle East, coupled with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in Q3, have emerged as optimistic tailwinds for BTC’s performance. The U.S. BTC-spot ETF market is reflecting robust demand, with inflow trends driving Bitcoin closer to its record high of $111,917.
Recent data from Farside Investors highlighted notable net inflows within the BTC-spot ETF issuers. On June 27, total net inflows reached an impressive $501.2 million, with standout trends attributed to key players:
- The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw substantial net inflows of $165.5 million.
- BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported net inflows of $153 million.
- Additionally, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) experienced net inflows of $150.3 million.
Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, offered insights into this inflow streak, commenting on the broader momentum. He suggested that this trend could signal a surge in institutional and advisor adoption, stating:
“Talked to someone in the space today who said institutional & advisor adoption hadn’t even really fully begun.”
BTC Price Outlook: Trade Developments, Fed Signals, and ETF Flows
On June 29, Bitcoin gained 0.94%, building on a modest increase of 0.20% from the previous Saturday, which pushed the closing price to $108,350. This marked the extension of its winning streak to three sessions, pointing towards a generally positive market sentiment.
The near-term price outlook is intricately tied to a multifaceted array of key drivers. Market participants are closely watching Fed rate cut rhetoric, evolving trade developments, and the status of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, all of which have the potential to shape price movements. Additionally, trends in ETF flows remain a significant indicator.
Considering the current landscape, potential scenarios can be outlined:
- Bearish Scenario: A resurgence in tensions between Iran and Israel, setbacks in legislation, renewed trade friction, hawkish signals from the Fed, and potential ETF outflows could collectively drag BTC toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), potentially bringing sub-$100,000 levels into focus.
- Bullish Scenario: Conversely, if the ceasefire holds, bipartisan support for crypto-friendly bills materializes, trade friction eases, and the Fed continues to send dovish signals, coupled with favorable ETF inflows, BTC could see a resurgence towards its all-time high of $111,917.
